A Changing of the (Point) Guard

With starting point guard T. J. Ford set to make his return to the Toronto Raptor lineup sometime within the next week to ten days it begs the question: has Ford lost his starting role to Jose Calderon? The answer is likely to be at least for the time being, if not indefinitely.

Ford has been out of Toronto’s lineup since Dec. 11th, when he was violently clubbed over the head by Hawks forward Al Horford while attempting a lay-up. The head injury has re-aggravated his spinal stenosis, a condition Ford has been battling since 2004. Since Ford’s injury, back up point guard Jose Calderon has performed not only adequately, but among the top point guards in the league. His play has been so impressive that one wonders whether Ford has lost his starting role for good.

In the summer of 2006, Toronto general manager Bryan Colangelo traded away fan-favorite forward Charlie Villanueva for T. J. Ford, a player many thought would be their point guard of the future. Ford’s first season with the Raptors showed that he indeed was capable of being a franchise point guard, putting up solid numbers – 14.0 points per game and 7.9 assists. At only 23, Ford was among the top half of NBA point guards in many statistical categories. Best of all, Ford and Calderon had formed a fantastic partnership, and the duo was easily the best one-two point guard combination in all of the NBA. The future looked bright.

That is, until Ford went down in December, forcing him to miss the next 23 games and counting. But what was initially viewed as a catastrophe has actually turned out to be something of a blessing in disguise. An analysis of Calderon’s numbers put him not only above Ford in virtually every statistical category, but in the top 5 in the league.

Before his injury, Ford was averaging 14.1 PPG, 6.8 assists (12th in the NBA), and 1.9 rebounds. Calderon, since Ford’s injury, has averaged 14.7 PPG, 9.7 assists (4th), and 3.2 rebounds. Calderon’s 55% shooting percentage is best among NBA guards, his 92% free throw shooting is third among all players, and 44% 3-point shooting is 6th in the league among players with more than 100 attempts. Compare those numbers to Ford’s 49% shooting percentage, 85% free throw percentage, and 27% from three-point land. Calderon’s numbers are even getting better. In January, he average 15 PPG and 10.4 assists.

All of this doesn’t even mention the fact that Calderon is within striking distance of an NBA single-season record. Calderon’s 5.56 assists are near the record of 6.14 (which Calderon was on pace for up until a few game ago). This is perhaps the point guard’s most important stat. As the point guard it is his job to feed his shooters the ball as often as he can without turning the ball over. In this respect, Calderon is the best in the NBA. To put his numbers into perspective, 2-time MVP Steve Nash has an assist to turnover ration of 3.17.

Unless Calderon falters down the stretch, which he hasn’t shown signs of doing, then the Raptors would be absolutely foolish to remove him from the starting lineup. It’s his job to lose at this point. However, this causes somewhat of a problem for general manager Bryan Colangelo. What he has now are two number one point guards, a situation neither is likely to be happy with. Although Calderon has been nothing but a fantastic teammate by accepting his back-up role, it is hard to imagine him being content with 20-25 minutes a game now that he is arguably one of the top guards in the league.

Calderon is in the final year of his contract that sees him making 2.5 million a season. This is likely to skyrocket in free agency. Toronto will no doubt do everything in their power to re-sign him, but if they do, this poses a problem. T. J. Ford is currently in the second year of a three year deal that sees him making over 8 million a season. He has a club option for a fourth year. If Calderon re-signs for 5 or 6 million, that means that they now have 13-14 million dollars a season tied up between two point guards, one of who is a back up.

Unless Calderon is a much better team player than anyone could expect (by taking less money and playing time), then Colangelo is going to have to address this situation. By dealing Ford, the Raptors would solidify a number one guy, as well as get something significant in return (even with his injury plagued reputation). They are in dire need of a big man to tutor/tandem with budding superstar Andrea Bargnani. They could do with a more athletic small forward (although Carlos Delfino has fit in nicely this year). As well, Chris Bosh needs someone who can step in and lighten his load at power forward on some nights.

If the Raptors can re-sign Calderon and manage to keep the currently co-existing relationship with him and T. J. Ford, then the Raptors would be more than happy. But how realistic is this? Can this co-existence even exist anymore, now that Calderon has overtake the man everyone had dubbed the point guard of the franchise for the next ten years?

My personal feeling is that Calderon is the safer bet. His numbers are better, the team’s record is better since he has started, and he seems more content with Toronto than Ford does. This isn’t to say that Ford isn’t happy in Toronto, but Calderon loves the city. As an international player (Spain), Calderon feels very comfortable. And let’s not forget that Ford is American, and most high-profile American players don’t typically stay in Toronto very long (see Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Damon Stoudemire and Antonio Davis).

Although Calderon is two years older than Ford, he appears to have a bigger upside. No one saw Calderon becoming the player he has in only three years in the league. There is no telling how far his game will go with significant, consistent playing time. Also, Ford has been plagued with two career-threatening injuries and he is only twenty-four.

There is hardly cause to worry with whatever Bryan Colangelo decides to do. Either Ford or Calderon are more than adequate to lead this team, and he’s surely not going to bring back less than market value in a trade (Colangelo, after all, is the league’s best GM). In Colangelo we trust.

But for me, I trust he’ll go with Calderon.